KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2004-007

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Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published Friday 12/17/2004 At 1800 UTC Valid 12/17-23/2004

During the period 12/17-20 quiet to active (Kp 1-4) geomagnetic conditions �WILL OCCUR�.

During the period 12/17-20 minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming is �POSSIBLE�.

During the period 12/20-21 quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3) geomagnetic conditions �WILL OCCUR�.

During the period 12/21-23 unsettled to active (Kp 3-4) geomagnetic conditions are "PROBABLE".

During the period 12/21-23 minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming is "POSSIBLE".

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is low.

The chance of daylight radio blackouts from solar flares is low.

Daily solar flux levels should range between 85-110.

GLOBAL LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Daytime- Poor to fair.
Nighttime- Poor.

GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Low Latitude- Good.

Mid Latitude- Good.

High Latitude- Fair to poor, becoming fair to good on 12/20, then back to fair to poor 12/21.

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-

-Expect fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming good on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

*Expect poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming fair on 12/20, then back to poor on 12/21.

+Expect good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming fair on 12/20, then back to good on 12/21.

-Expect poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming fair on 12/20, then back to poor on 12/21.

+Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming poor on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming fair on 12/20, then back to poor on 12/21.

Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be fair to good.

"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair, becoming poor on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor, becoming very poor on 12/20, then back to poor on 12/21.

"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good, then becoming fair on 12/20, back to good on 12/21.

"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair, then becoming poor on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good, then becoming fair on 12/20, then back to good on 12/21.

"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair, then becoming poor on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere �mid latitude� propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair on 12/20, then back to good on 12/21.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere �mid latitude� propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be good, then becoming fair on 12/20, then back to good on 12/21.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere �high latitude� propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair, then becoming poor on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere �high latitude� propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be fair, then becoming poor on 12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

Propagation Forecast Scales-

Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3


GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)

Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer available.

http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp

During the 7 day outlook period there will be "moderate lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

END OF FORECAST

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR 12/10-16/2004-

Sunspot Groups- No sunspot group #'s contained twisted magnetic signatures capable of producing large M class or larger solar flares.

Solar Flux Readings- 85 to 94

SEC Sunspot Number- 14 to 39

Solar Wind Speed- 348-581

X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0

Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A5.2-B1.5

Dst Index- -70 to -16

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- 0

Geo or partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0

Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 2

CH #132 12/09-14/04

Ch #133 12/16- present.

No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) occurred.

The Ap index has been at quiet to major storm levels, with a range of 0 to 56.

The Kp index has been at quiet to minor storm levels, with a range of 0 to 5.

Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, with the exception of solar flux and sunspot number on HF.

2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. For high frequencies over 125 is good, over 150 is better, over 200 is best.

Keep in mind though that at medium frequencies the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7.

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no greater then (10-1) on MF AM broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -50 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current.

TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -

Equatorial Ring Current- A phenomena that acts as a repository for precipitated electrons in the vicinity of the magnetic equator. The electrons travel by spiraling around north south magnetic field lines at a frequency called the 'gyro frequency. The end result is lower latitude propagation path medium frequency transmitted RF signal blockage absorption via the D layer. Absorption is similar to higher latitude Aurora Oval absorption and is inter-related with same.

A reliable gauge for measuring the up to three day lingering post geomagnetic storming medium frequency transmitted RF absorption is the Dst index, measured in nT's. It is an estimated value from Kyoto Japan and is based on a formula. Large negative values after a major geomagnetic storm indicate a high Equatorial Ring Current level.

Here is a website link to the Kyoto, Japan Dst Index http://swdcdb.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir and the U.C. Berkeley website link http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index and a NASA GSFC website link http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index .

For more information go to KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

Space Weather Scales-

Kp Indices-

G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3

Ap Indices-

Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet

Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-

K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted � 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space and Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
[email protected]

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KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
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